Clear about what the numbers mean
Official USDA data and current-season crop models, clearly identified.
Crop Tracker combines USDA data with modeled estimates to provide a timely county-level view of the growing season.
Official USDA observations
Crop condition and progress are derived from USDA data to model historical county readings. Historical county yields and acreage come from USDA reports and datasets.
Current-season crop models
County yield forecasts combine historical yield patterns with crop condition, progress, weather, drought, and other available signals. Forecasts are estimates, not final USDA county yields.
County and regional summaries
County estimates are combined into state and Corn Belt summaries using expected harvested acres, so production areas contribute in proportion to their acreage.